Sedona Real Estate: Six Months In, Two Very Different Stories

We’re past the halfway point of 2026, and it felt like a good time to step back from the month-to-month noise and look at what the numbers actually say about where Sedona real estate stands so far this year. As usual, the story splits right along zip code lines — and if anything, that split has only gotten more pronounced since my last update.

Take a look at the chart below. Both 86336 (the city of Sedona) and 86351 (the Village of Oak Creek) started the year at a similar pace — 17 sales in Sedona in January, 13 in the Village. From there, Sedona took off: 23 sales in March, 24 in April, and a strong 33 in May. Then June happened. Sales fell to just 15 — a 42% drop from June of last year, and the softest month Sedona has had all year. The Village, meanwhile, has been the tortoise to Sedona’s hare: a slower start, but a steady climb into the high teens by April that’s held there through June. For the year, Sedona has closed 168 homes and the Village 108.

Homes sold each month, Sedona (86336) vs. Village of Oak Creek (86351), January–June 2026.

Price tells a similar story, and it’s worth sitting with for a second. Sedona’s average sale price is down 32.9% year-over-year — from roughly $1.36 million a year ago to $911,000 in June — even as the median list price climbed 13.6% to $1.49 million over the same stretch. Read that again: sellers are asking for more, and the market is paying less. That’s the widest I’ve seen that gap in Sedona, and it’s the single most important number in this whole post. The Village has softened too — median sale price down 6.9% year-over-year to $760,000 — but nowhere near as sharply, and list prices there have only crept up about 7.7%.

The second chart shows part of why. Price per square foot has been genuinely choppy in Sedona this year, bouncing from $505 in January up to $634 in February and back down to $533 in June, with no real trend line to speak of. That kind of swing tells you the averages are being pushed around by a handful of high-end sales each month rather than a steady market-wide repricing — which is exactly what you’d expect in a zip code where the median list price is pushing $1.5 million. The Village’s price-per-square-foot line, by contrast, has barely moved all year — $464 in January, $461 in June. Boring, in the best way.

Average sold price per square foot, Sedona (86336) vs. Village of Oak Creek (86351), January–June 2026.

Inventory is the other half of the story. Sedona’s months’ supply has climbed to just over 6 in June — up 43% from a year ago and now past the traditional line into buyer’s-market territory. New listings are up nearly 32% year-over-year while the number of homes going under contract is down 31%. The Village has added inventory too (new listings up 67% year-over-year), but because buyers there are absorbing it almost as fast as it arrives, months’ supply only crept up to 3.74 — a comparatively modest 8% increase. I flagged this divergence starting back in June, and six weeks later it’s only gotten wider.

One number that hasn’t moved much in either zip code: the sales-price-to-list-price ratio, holding at 95.9% in Sedona and 97.3% in the Village. That matters. It means homes that are priced correctly are still selling close to what sellers are asking — this isn’t a market where buyers are showing up with lowball offers and getting them accepted. It’s a market where overpriced listings sit, correctly priced listings move, and the average gets dragged around by whichever mix happened to close that month.

So — bottom line for buyers: Sedona proper is offering more room to negotiate than it has in a long while, with days on market down to 44 (yes, down — faster, not slower, which tells you the homes that ARE selling are moving briskly once priced right) and inventory piling up behind them. If you’ve been priced out of the city limits, this is the most flexibility that market has shown all year. The Village is a tougher hunt — tight supply, rising sales, and sellers who aren’t budging much on price.

Bottom line for sellers: if you’re in Sedona proper, price matters more this year than it has in a while — the gap between what’s listed and what’s actually closing is the widest I’ve tracked, and homes that are priced to the current market are still moving in well under two months. If you’re in the Village, you’re in a good spot — steady demand, tight inventory, and prices holding far better than across town.

We’ll see if the second half of the year brings Sedona back toward the Village’s steadier pace, or if that gap keeps widening into fall. I’ll have the next check-in once the summer numbers are in.