Spring is here – the wildflowers are out along the red rocks, the creek is running and the hikers are back in force. And the real estate market? Well, it’s a bit of a mixed bag – which actually makes it more interesting to talk about.

The most striking number from our most recent data (mid-March through mid-April, zip code 86336) is the average sales price, which jumped to $1.41M – up 31% from the prior month. Before you get too excited or too alarmed, that’s largely a mix shift – more higher-end homes closed in that window than in the month prior. The price per square foot, which is a cleaner apples-to-apples measure, actually came in at $535 in March – down 3% compared to this time last year. So prices aren’t exactly running away from us.

What IS notable is inventory. We’re sitting at just 4.53 months supply of homes, down 18% from the prior period. Anything under 6 months starts to feel like seller’s territory, and we’re getting there. New listings are coming online – 64 hit the market in March alone – but they’re being absorbed.

The one number that raises an eyebrow is days on market: 86 days on average in March, up nearly 50% from February. That tells me buyers are still being selective. They’re paying close to asking price when they do pull the trigger – the sales-to-list ratio is a healthy 97.4% – but they’re not in a panic. They’re looking, comparing and taking their time.

Bottom line: this is a market where well-priced homes are selling and overpriced homes are sitting. If you’re a seller, that distinction matters more right now than it has in a while. If you’re a buyer, you have more time to be thoughtful – but don’t mistake a longer look at a property for unlimited opportunity. Inventory is still lean.

Stay tuned – the next 60 days will tell us a lot about where this spring season is really headed…