Acres: 45,899
Percent Containment: 0%
Date/Time Detected: Friday, 06/18/2021 at 1927 MST Structures Damaged/Destroyed: 0
Number of Personnel: 553
Cause: Lightning
Origin/Location: 4 miles north of Perkinsville

Today on the Kaibab National Forest, firefighters will continue yesterday’s burnout, bringing fire south from the Sycamore Falls Climbing Area to White Horse Lake, with support of an unmanned aerial vehicle (drone). Crews will continue line preparation from Pine Flat to Sycamore Point along FR 105, in anticipation of a firing operation.

On the Coconino National Forest, crews will mop up and patrol yesterday’s firing operation from the Boy Scout Camp to the intersection of FR 527 and FR 538.

Crews will continue the firing operation today down FR 538 to the edge of Sycamore Canyon. This activity is designed to stop fire growth towards the values at risk in the I-40 corridor from Williams to Flagstaff.

This afternoon, crews will begin to back fire down into Sycamore Canyon by aerial ignition with helicopters and drones. This activity is designed to minimize fire effects to soils and vegetation on the steep slopes of Sycamore Canyon.

Burning operations are expected to continue for the next few days as long as weather conditions allow. Smoke is expected to be more noticeable the next few days due to burnout operations. Smoke may settle in low lying areas, such as Verde and Prescott Valleys, and will lift by late morning. Smoke columns will be visible throughout the day as burning operations continue. Smoke forecasts are available at Wildfire Smoke Forecast | ADEQ Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (azdeq.gov) .

Evacuation status as of 6 a.m. June 25.(Notifications are in place until status is rescinded or changed by each respective sheriff’s office:

“GO” in Coconino County, areas around Sycamore Canyon and South of Forest Service Road 535 off FS 231 (Sycamore Canyon) and Garland Prairie South. In Yavapai County, some rural ranches in the area of North FSR 525 and Bill Grey Road, West of Sedona (Loy Ranch). A shelter for evacuees is set up at Sinagua Middle School at 3950 E. Butler in Flagstaff.

“SET” – in Coconino County, areas around Camp Navajo, Garland Prairie North, Pine Aire Estates and residents in between. In Yavapai County, Bill Grey Road (Grey Ranch), FS Road 525 (Windmill Ranch), and FS Road 152C and Bear Mountain Road (Bear Mountain).

“READY” -– in Coconino County, all areas south of 1-40, west of I-17 including the following neighborhoods: Westwood Estates, Flagstaff Ranch (including W.L. Gore), Pine Del, Forest Highlands, Kachina Village, University Heights, Mountain del, and Equestrian Estates and in Yavapai County, the areas north of AZ-89A in West Sedona and north of AZ-89A in Uptown Sedona have been placed on “Ready” status.

It’s fire season in Northern Arizona. All residents in Northern Arizona should be in Ready status.

The Rafael Fire was discovered on June 18, 2021, on the Prescott National Forest, the result of passing predominantly dry thunderstorms. The fire was discovered in a very inaccessible area approximately 4 miles north of Perkinsville had grown to 1,000 acres by the morning of June 20, 2021. At this time, the Arizona Central West Zone Type 3 Incident Management Team assumed management of the Rafael Fire. Strong winds on June 20, 2021, combined with dry fuels and favorable uphill topography in front of the fire, added nearly 18,000 acres.

On June 21st, the fire added another approximately 5,500 acres and continued to burn actively within the Sycamore Canyon Wilderness on the Kaibab National Forest.

On June 22, 2021, the fire continued to move east and crossed into the Coconino National Forest. Again, topography and dry fuels drove the fire and by the morning of June 23rd the fire had grown to 34, 949 acres.

On the morning of June 24, the Southwest Area Type 1 Incident Management Team 2 led by Incident Commander Dave Bales assumed management of the fire. The Rafael Fire now involves the Prescott, Kaibab, and Coconino National Forests and spans the Yavapai/Coconino County line.

Information about evacuation status can be found on the Coconino County Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/CoconinoCounty

All Arizona State Trust lands are closed effective Friday, June 25, at 8 a.m.

Next 12 hours operational period:

Weak warming of overnight lows, continued fair recovery. Predicted northerly winds as well as downslope/down canyon terrain driven winds will allow burnout operations conducted on the northern planning area perimeter to gain depth and move fire into the headwaters of Sycamore Canyon.

Operations – Northern portion of the fire: To contain the forward progression of the fire and protect Flagstaff, Camp Navajo, I-40, I-17, powerlines and other values at risk, hold previous burnout operations and continue burnout operations from the head of Sycamore Canyon, SE along the 527 and 538 roads. Also, continue burnout operations from the head of Sycamore Canyon, W/SW along the 12 road and continuing along the 105 road. Southeast portion of the fire: Due to remoteness and limited access of ground resources, continue to use air resources to limit fire spread to the SE to protect Sedona and adjacent values at risk.

Western portion: Continue to monitor the heel of the fire with aircraft for possible fire activity. Around the fire perimeter, continue to assess values at risk and control features with high probability of success.

Next 24 hours operational period: (Through Saturday afternoon)

Main concerns are the slight chance of dry thunderstorms, widespread afternoon humidity lowering into the teens, and temperatures of 90 or higher in the lower elevations. Wind should be lighter. Light and variable winds will likely result in slow, but steady, movement of the main fire northerly/up canyon within Sycamore Canyon and north of Tule Canyon. Weather remains conducive for burnout operations while also allowing fire from previous burnouts to slowly back downslope within the headwaters of Sycamore Canyon.

Operations – Northern portion of the fire: Hold previous burnout operations and continue the forward progression of burnout operations on the north, northeast portions of the fire.

Southeast portion of the fire: Use air resources to monitor fire activity and limit fire spread to the SE to protect Sedona.

Next 48 hours operational period: (Through Sunday afternoon)

Concern continues to be a slight chance of evening and afternoon thunderstorms, a continued warming trend, afternoon humidity mainly in the teens everywhere. Wind continues to slacken. The switch to northeasterly winds will test the southern perimeter which has been quiet for the past several days. Primary activity is likely to be fire from previous burnouts along the northern perimeter continuing to grow downslope within Sycamore Canyon. Fire within Mooney Canyon continues to back downslope and has the potential for a slope reversal at the base of the canyon. If this fire crosses the bottom of Mooney Canyon during the active burn period, the northeasterly winds have the potential to rapidly accelerate fire growth to the southwest burning through the very dry brush fuels.

Operations – Similar to above with possible increased suppression in the SE portion depending on fire activity.

Next 72 hours operational period: (Through Monday afternoon)

Concern for an increasing chance of afternoon and overnight thunderstorms, a strong east wind of 10 to 20 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph. Temperatures cooling and humidity increasing. Predicted higher humidity throughout the burn period combined with strong gusty winds out of the east are likely to result in very erratic fire growth. The majority of the growth will be wind driven fire growing to the west within Sycamore Canyon and along Mooney Canyon.

Operations – Similar to above with continued burnout operations and holding/improving line. Possible increased suppression in the SE portion depending on fire activity.

Anticipated after 72 hours:

A surge of the summer monsoon is expected to develop by Tuesday, bringing the potential for frequent lightning, locally heavy rains. Greatest thunderstorm coverage on Thursday, July 1. Another day of erratic growth with winds predicted to switch from east winds back to west winds, yet remain strong and gusty along with continued elevated humidity. Primary growth is expected to be within the northern reaches of Sycamore Canyon.

Operations – Continue with burnout operations as appropriate. Hold and improve line on the north, east and southeast portions of the fire. Monitor the heel of the fire on the west side.